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Cathy K

400,000 Expats returned to South Africa?

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Cazpi

Sitting in jhb right now and I have to disagree. Even with the impressive addition of the bar graphs. There is a Facebook group for the suburb next to us, and it seems that it is emptying rapidly. Not always out of South Africa, but mostly

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MaryJane

"Pffft!" is my first reaction.

According to StatsSA, there were already 4.5m whites in South Africa according to 2011 census and 4.2m in 2001 census (all ages though). Additional 400k (15-64), would this not be just normal population growth for 4/5 years?

What about reproduction rates? How many of these 400k were not part of the census back 2011 because they were below 15? Are we to assume that South Africans joining the workforce age are equal to those leaving it? Entrants = Retirees perhaps?

Hmmm......

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Raquel

Agreed guys! Numbers can easily be "manipulated" to display what you want to show!

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Druce
Tracey22

The person quoted in the article is Loane Sharp. I have copied and pasted this from one of his own articles: http://mg.co.za/article/2011-01-28-trickery-in-employment-figures

Trickery in employment figures

Perhaps it's time to privatise SA's official employment statistics.

http://mg.co.za/article/2011-01-28-trickery-in-employment-figures' title="">

Statistics South Africa’s employment data leave much to be desired. It does not provide a coherent long-term series on employment and, after frequent and substantial methodological changes, Stats SA does not provide backward revisions of historical data.

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OutOfSa

Hmmm,

me thinks:

If the Government of SA employs the same quality of people :clown: in Stats SA as they do in the rest of the government :sleep: , then I have to wonder if these 'statisticians' are stats wizards or witch doctors with degrees from interesting internet universities.

Carte Blanche had noted some interesting qualifications among government smarties(not)....

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Guest

Ok so here is my problem with this article and I quote:

  • More than 400 000 white expat South Africans have returned to the land of their birth since the apex of the financial crisis in 2009.
  • We know this because Stats SA keeps close tabs on the racial identity of working-age South Africans, though the government has long since stopped measuring the numbers leaving and returning.

So immediately the article claims that "South Africans have returned to the land of their birth" and in the next paragraph is says "government has long since stopped measuring the numbers leaving and returning". If they stopped measuring people, then you can't claim that people have returned. Oxymoron much - or just moronic?

Secondly, this article is based on the working population, as I have indicated in the underlined bit. So in my opinion, since the Eskom debacle in 2008 and the ensuing rocketing electricity prices year on year, it has plunged the average household's/entrepreneur's finances into disarray. Keeping in mind that electricity prices is an input cost when considering manufacturing of goods and produce, it therefore has a massive knock on effect on the economy as a whole from a living cost point of view, together with the household's own electricity budget. So it's a double whammy for the consumer. For families who traditionally could afford for one person to stay home and raise kids/run the house hold whilst the other person is earning a living, rocketing expenses simply meant this is a luxury that very few can afford, which forced the stay at home spouse to return to formal employment.

I also make mention of the entrepreneur because for him it's a bleak scenario as well. His input costs have increased because of electricity and people are not buying as readily because of what I mentioned before, so for this guy it's not good news all round. This forces entrepreneurs to close up shop because liabilities exceeds turnover, which leaves them little choice but to return to formal working employment - which is a pity because entrepreneurs in South Africa have the ability to really make a difference to unemployment in South Africa.

Ok so not all of the economy's woes can be laid at the doorstep of Eskom though. Considering this:

in 2009, the Rand (Average exchange rate) vs US Dollar started the year at R9.87 for 1 US$ and ended the year at R7.49 for 1 US$. (http://www.x-rates.com/average/?from=USD&to=ZAR&amount=1&year=2009)

in 2015, the Rand (Average exchange rate) vs US Dollar started the year at R11.55 for 1 US$ and is currently at R12.76 for 1 US$.

Now consider Oil pricing.

In July 2009, Average Brent Curde pricing was at $64.44 per barrel

In July 2015, Average Brent Cure pricing was at $56.66 per barrel.

So simple math then says that:

Using the US/ZAR Exchange rate in July 2009 (R7.96 = $1), Oil was R512.94 per barrel and in July 2015 (R12.45 = $1) that same amount of oil was R704.17 per barrel. So what does this mean? Oil prices have decreased by about 12% from July 2009 to August 2015, however South Africans are paying about 37% more for the same product to keep their cars running. This of course is excluding any additional levies which is put on by the government for road infrastructure and road accident fund etc. If these are factored in, the increase is more like 40% or more.

Then of course Eskom is burning Diesel by the tonne to keep the lights on - so there is that to factor in as well considering what I just explained about petrol pricing. Factoring in things like Etoll etc for the Gauteng folk, which is the economic hub of SA, the way property tax is calculated have changed from 2009 to 2015 from value of the land to value of the land PLUS the house thereby giving the fat cats a way of getting richer quicker, and lastly considering the amount of teens/youth entering the work place, it is easy to see that the consumer is bleeding in SA.

Considering everything I have just mentioned, I am of the OPINON (which that article should have stated) that these folk didn't arrive back in SA. It's the people in SA that have no other option than to make ends meat that is forced to return to work, or to work multiple jobs - which is an interesting notion because how does Stats SA account for one person doing two jobs at different companies? It is also sad because from this explanation you will note that a person that is experienced in their 40's for example and returning to work, is forced to compete against the youth, which is a conversation for another day.

Edited by WernerC

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Jules

Frankly I don't care if the stats are correct or not. It doesn't impact me because I live in Canada. If some choose to return to live in SA I wish them much success and happiness.

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Chante Young

I do however "wonder" about these stats.....since they never even made it to us (and so many other people I know of) with the 2011 Census....

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Guest

This is a little more dated, but I tend agree more about the validity of these stats as they are data provided by UK, US, Australia, Canada and other countries. Review here: http://www.politicsweb.co.za/news-and-analysis/how-many-south-africans-have-left-the-country I would challenge most statistics from SA after 1996. Who knows, maybe the 400 000 Expats they claimed returned were never counted?

As to the debated number of South African expats in Canada, who knows, my guess no more than 60 000 to 70 000.

Edited by Lawrence

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Harry

Belated post,

I'm not going to believe anyone who tries to tell me 400,000 folks have gone back to SA; period. Among the folks I have dealt with over 15 years here in Canada, I know of only two parties of different racial groups who have ever gone back, and I have hundreds coming here. Tell me how their crazy numbers make sense against the backdrop of my experience.

Let me rephrase what they are saying, given that it is overwhelmingly the white folks that are internationally mobile: This article would like to suggest that, on average, 1 in 10 of present white people in South Africa are newly moved from overseas. That is rank BS in a country where most of that same demographic would get on a plane to leave tomorrow morning, if only they could. To the extent that other racial groups ARE involved in this diaspora and supposed anti-diaspora, they make no significant difference to the conclusion.

SO, I don't care how they concocted, massaged, or manipulated the numbers, they're simplty dead wrong and likely willfully lying for political effect. Go follow the money.

What IS true right now, is that it is the devoutly liberal South Africans who are finally giving up.

First they realised the mistake they made and just went quiet in the 2007-2010 period; now they're uprooting and leaving.

One of the most significant and devout liberal individuals in my life contacted me recently and told me he's giving up and moving to the US. As a classic Sestiger and kindred spirit of Breyten Breytenbach he simply can't take it anymore. He made a significant contribution to my view of life and my values in the 1970s.

So, I can only conclude that "400,000" is new South African English for "some". Perhaps it means "all fourty", and the four additional zeros represent the "all". Who knows, anything is possible with the New SA, and nothing is too outrageous. I mean, these folks would have you believe that whites would flock to SA to be blessed by a president who jumps around in a leopard skin and sings "Kill the whites". Verrrrrry logical, don't you think?

This is merely evidence that, the bigger the lie, the more it will be believed.

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Druce

Well said Harry. When speaking to people 2 years ago and telling them about our plans, we were highly criticized by many. Some of those people have recently asked about more information on our journey as they are also considering it.

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Guest

Harry, over the years I’ve read many good theories and opinions of the “actual number’’ of South Africans that have left for good. As for the claimed 400 000 that have returned, never happened. I agree; one cannot believe what the SA government tell you, not post 1994 any way. What I would like to see is recent data on South Africans that have settled in countries like Australia, Canada, UK, US etc.; that will provide more accurate data.

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